Big East NCAA Bids

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brewcity77 I've been thinking about this after the UL game, especially as it seems the Cardinals are starting to be written off. Last year, we got in with an RPI of 64 and SOS of 30. Here are the categories: The Locks Syracuse: #1 in the RPI, #1 in both polls, #2 SOS. Lock them in. Georgetown: Even if they Hoyas tank, they should win 10 Big East games. That'd give them a 24 RPI and 18 SOS. They're in. Connecticut: UConn has yet to face the meat of their schedule, and losses to UCF and Rutgers aren't very good, but even if they go 9-9 in conference they project as #21 in RPI and #2 SOS. Barring total collapse, they'll be in. . Should Be In Marquette: The Warriors are favored in 10/12 games and even if they only go 10-8 in conference are projected as a top-30 RPI and SOS. That'd be one heck of a snub in the 68-team era. Seton Hall: The USF loss sucked, but the Pirates already have 4 top-50 wins. It's hard not to see them getting to at least 20 wins, and even with a 9-9 Big East record, that would give them a top-40 RPI and top-30 SOS. Honestly, 22 or 23 wins are more likely. West Virginia: Many wrote off the 'Neers after losing to Kent State, but they have no bad losses (including the Flashes) and are 6-5 against the RPI top-100. Their only game from here on out when they'll be an underdog is at the Carrier Dome. . On The Bubble Louisville: Critics are banging on the 'Ville and injuries could be their undoing (Rakeem Buckles the latest). Still, they had an excellent non-con schedule, boast 5 top-100 wins, and only 2 heavy RPI drags. Their next 7 games will be critical. If they go 4-3, they will be in good position to get to 9-9 in the Big East. While most will say that isn't good enough, Louisville would have the #36 RPI and #18 SOS. Honestly, if they go 8-10, they could still make the Dance. Their #45 RPI and #18 SOS would both be better than what got MU in last year, and a 20-11 record isn't nearly as bad as some that have made the cut when there were only 65 teams invited. Cincinnati: Despite winning 9/10 since the fight with Xavier, the Bearcats played a pathetic non-con. 11-7 in the Big East is realistic, but will it offset bad home losses to Presbyterian and St. John's? They only had 1 top-100 non-con win, against #74 Oklahoma. Even with an 11-7 Big East mark, Cincy would project to #74 RPI with the #99 SOS. It's hard to imagine an 11-7 or 12-6 Big East team being snubbed, but if their only top-50 wins are Louisville and Georgetown, that's a possibility. Rutgers: Usually 5 non-conference losses sinks a team, but none of RU's losses are to any teams below 120 in the RPI. Their wins over Florida and UConn were major feathers in the cap. If they can win 5/6 at home (marking Syracuse as a loss) and steal a couple on the road (Providence and Notre Dame are promising) they could get to 10-8 in the Big East and 18-13 overall. 5-8 against the top-100 isn't horrible, especially with 3 top-20 wins (if they beat SHU at home). That would also give them the #84 RPI and #51 SOS, so they'd probably still need to pull off 2 wins, including one more quality win, in the Big East tournament, but it's not unthinkable. South Florida: Like Rutgers, hard to see a 5-loss non-con team making it. But the Bulls have been good at home, with wins over Cleveland State and Seton Hall, and a narrow loss to UConn. If they can hold serve at home and steal two roadies out of DePaul, Providence, or Pitt, they will be 11-7 in the Big East. Would a 18-13 record be good enough? Probably not without a Big East Tourney win or two, but they'd be looking at a 66 RPI and 37 SOS, around what got Marquette in a year ago. . It's Not (Totally) Impossible Pittsburgh: Initially I wanted to put them in the bubble club, but they have a long way to go. Pitt probably needs to go 8-4 the rest of the way to get on the bubble, and that might not even be enough. They do have 7 home games, so if they can turn Petersen back into a fortress, maybe they can get back in the mix. Win out at home, steal a road game at USF or Louisville (or better both) and they might get that "hot team" bump come Selection Sunday. An 8-10 league record would give them #63 RPI and #49 SOS. Notre Dame: Zero non-con wins against the RPI top-175 means ND would probably need to go 10-8 in the league just to be on the bubble. They still have 4 road games against top-20 RPI teams, and 3 more at home. On the plus side, the NIT still counts as postseason play. Villanova: The Wildcats had a solid non-con, but they lost almost every worthwhile game they scheduled, and took a bad loss to Santa Clara to boot. They probably would need to win every game at home (tall order beating UConn and MU when they got spanked there by USF), and take roadies from USF, Rutgers, and St. John's. Even that would only get their RPI to #59, so another win or two might be needed in the Big East Tournament. Highly unlikely, but not a complete impossibility. . No Chance In Hell DePaul: Their non-con was way too weak, giving them only 3 top-100 opponents and zero top-100 wins. They could win 4-6 Big East games, but that won't be enough. Still, Oliver Purnell has the arrow pointed up. St. John's: The Red Storm were one of the feel-good stories of last year, but having a losing record already and being favored in only 1 of their remaining 14 games must feel pretty bad. Providence: If the Friars go 10-2, they will still only have a 60 RPI and 125 SOS. But they won't go anywhere near 10-2.

brewcity77 I'm really curious, people saying 5, who do you think gets left out? If Marquette goes 7-11 in the Big East, they still have a better RPI (58) and SOS (18) than last year. Seton Hall at 7-11 would have a better profile than last year's Marquette team too (59 RPI, 30 SOS0. WVU would have the same RPI (64) as 2010-11 Marquette at 7-11, but a much better SOS (11). And if one of these teams collapsed, wouldn't that almost automatically mean that a Louisville, Cincinnati, Rutgers, or USF was capitalizing on those losses to snag a bid, getting the league back up to 6? I know some people will just take the lowest option for the sake of it, I expect 1 or 2 people to say that, but I didn't expect 10% of respondents at this point to be saying that. Is it just trolling or does someone expect a major collapse or two?

Source: http://www.muscoop.com/index.php?topic=29861.0

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